Did Putin win the French parliamentary elections?
French President Emmanuel Marcon was defeated, in the second round of the legislative elections, by losing the absolute majority in the National Assembly, after the escalation of the extreme right-wing rhetoric, and the tendency to expand the circle of his representatives in the legislation, as the percentage of voting, or representation for the forces of the extreme right, increased from 31%, in The 2017 presidential elections increased to a percentage of more than 42%, a situation that now requires study and in-depth study of the orbits and obsessions of the elites, French and European public opinion in general, and also for President Macron, who is no longer able to lead the rule of France smoothly, because of the complexity of his ability and his handcuffing after this The defeat, in which the extreme right, and with it the left, made major breakthroughs, not to mention that the French constitutional system is based on a semi-parliamentary and semi-presidential basis, i.e. a stage that forces the residents of the Elysee to live with, otherwise dissolving Parliament and calling for early elections, or entering into details and complications related to the policy France, its role in the European continent, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and its historical relations with the countries of the Mediterranean basin.
So it became necessary for President Macron to search for alliances to implement his reform program for the next five years, and he was originally elected with a meagre majority since the French voter did not originally want to elect the extreme nationalist right, represented by Marie Le Pen or the leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon, so he fled to a single option to express His anger, and many people’s abstinence from the presidential elections.
What happened in France today is an unprecedented situation in political and parliamentary life, where the “Together” coalition led by President Macron won 245 seats, which gives him a relative majority that does not enable him to rule alone, bearing in mind that the absolute majority is 289 deputies out of 577, and The new leftist Popular Environmental and Social Union, led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, won 135 seats, to be the largest opposition bloc in the National Assembly, which considered that Macron’s loss in these elections is “above all an electoral failure” for the French president, as he put it.
The far-right National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen also won several seats ranging between 89, as the number of seats increased about 15 times after Marie Le Pen reached the decisive round of the French presidential elections, representing a breakthrough.
Western nationalist parties and openness to Russia
The results of these elections will inevitably harm the political stability in the country, and every bill that will be submitted will be open to the unknown because there is no absolute majority. They are elections that came in the context of successive crises from Covid 19, and its exacerbation, of the war in Ukraine, high inflation and economic risks, which will restore The broad formation of the political scene, and its mixing in France within the circles of three major blocs at the expense of France’s traditional parties on the right and the left.
This is not important. What is important is that these leftist and extreme right-wing forces converge with the policies of Russian President Vladimir Putin in more than one intersection, and oppose any Western sanctions imposed or imposed on Moscow. Rather, these parties, with their nationalistic inclination, call for openness to Russia to reach quick solutions. This is in contrast to the escalation of tension and sharp polarization against Russia, the intensification of alliances, and the supply of arms to Kyiv in order to drain the Russian army and drag it into an endless war, and this in turn creates in the old continent many sharp divisions that we are beginning to witness Beginning in France, the escalation of the racist nationalist discourse, the erection of isolation or protectionist walls for countries, preventing exports and gaining more imports, without establishing weight or consideration for the concept of globalization in its economic aspect based on exchanges and the size of the movement of the World Trade Organization, which means that there is a beginning of a transformation In the European public opinion, which contradicts the policies of governments regarding the Russian war on Ukraine, especially since the European citizen is the one who is directly paying the tax, or the commission as a result of rising prices, and in the case of inflation and Interest rates are set by central banks, whose fiscal and monetary policies comply with Washington and its banks.
Russia takes a long breath
The longer the Russian-Ukrainian war lasts, the more Moscow takes a long breath, and reduces its military defeats, unlike the days of the first war, where today it set a static tactic for it in eastern and southern Ukraine, dealing with it the least possible losses, and in the long run it seems that the ruble is making gains that exceed 55 % against the US dollar.
After the West launched its six economic sanctions belts against Russia, including the freezing of 300 billion dollars of foreign exchange reserves, in gold and currencies, outside its borders out of 640 billion dollars, it began to launch serious discussions about the future of the monetary world, and the reserves of central banks outside the borders, as well as about the system, The international monetary system dominated by Washington through the dollar.
The dominance of the dollar
Concerns have become real and worry the world and its economy among countries, which are complaining about the dominance of the dollar, and in international financial institutions that await the deep transformations of the structure of the global monetary system, as well as the question about the need for central banks to maintain dollar reserves outside their borders, and that a shift must be made to diversify these foreign reserves in the outside.
Countries often accumulate foreign dollar reserves abroad to avoid economic shocks and internal tensions, as they can be used to ensure the flow of funds to local markets to purchase goods, basic commodities, fuels and grains, but today, after experiments, these funds are written off at the hour Washington wants, whether in dollars. Or any other currency, which made the world ask multiple questions about the criteria that are used to reserve cash reserves. What are the limits that allow this reservation?
No one today can have the answer to these financial and monetary concerns, but what is true is that the ruble currency, after the freezing of Russian funds, and the pressure of Western sanctions, did not succumb to collapse, as it began its reverse trend, and the Russian ruble began to recover by recording high gains, It reached levels not recorded even before the war, despite the freezing of this large amount of money.
Russian ruble gains more
These gains for the ruble came as a result of measures taken by the Russian authorities to defend its currency despite the sanctions, which were the move to pay the Russian ruble in gas exports to unfriendly countries, to avoid energy crises, which Russia is one of the largest exporters to the continent of Europe, which strengthened and protected the ruble and from Its market value against the dollar, in addition to obligating exporters in Russia to sell 80% of foreign exchange earnings on the Moscow Stock Exchange.
The announcement of the Russian Central Bank also had a set of measures, such as Capital Control, to achieve financial and economic stability, which reduced the demand for foreign currencies. Among the measures are also limiting the withdrawal of dollars by resident citizens from their bank accounts, as well as preventing banks from selling foreign currencies for the benefit of customers during the next six months.
Economic experts also estimate that the Russian ruble will achieve more gains in the future, if the Russian government implements its promises to link the ruble to gold, given that this will support the ruble and ensure its stability, and even its rise against the dollar and the euro alike, which is what many emerging countries have begun to do And even rich in oil and gas.
As for the ruble’s competition with the dollar globally, this is still a matter of debate regarding Russian technology, the size of the Russian individual’s purchasing power, and the size of the country’s gross domestic product in general.
A study by the International Monetary Fund, in which he indicated that the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves is declining, after it was around 70% 20 years ago, it has now reached 59%. This trend was not the result of currency shifts or changes and changes in interest rates, but rather because many central banks deliberately diversified their portfolios away from the US currency. Economic theory says that fewer dollar reserves will automatically translate into less American hegemony.
Today, all these developments are pushing the world at the political level to build a more strict and protectionist European and Western public opinion, and it has lost confidence in the patterns of globalization with its economic sharpness, and in the concept of trade exchange and its frightening size, especially after the closure of roads and supply chains for energy sources and global food security, and after comparing the economic feasibility In the size of the war and the dangers it is exposed to today and the financial losses it presents in the Russian-Ukrainian war, and between entering quickly into a settlement that preserves the security of the old continent and its peoples and global energy security, which has found outrage and exaggeration by the elites and Western decision-makers. Inevitably, the world today, with its monetary economy and liquidity, is heading towards building a multipolar international monetary system, perhaps ending the dominance of the US dollar in favour of the rise of other diverse competing currencies, and the Russian ruble will be among these rising currencies. This is the reality of what the Russian-Ukrainian war will produce, regardless of who wins this war.