An analysis of the US and Chinese dealings with the crisis of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan

An analysis of the US and Chinese dealings with the crisis of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan

In analyzing the American and Chinese dealings regarding the crisis of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, will we review the messages that the two countries sent to the world? What are the most prominent results of this crisis or the battle between the two parties?

Despite raising the ceiling of strong-worded Chinese military warnings to Washington, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is visiting Taiwan.

Upon her arrival on the island, Pelosi said that her visit does not contradict in any way with the US policy, which recognizes “one China”, and does not recognize Taiwan as an independent state (it is an attempt to ease Chinese tension from her visit).

She added that her visit comes to show the extent of Washington’s commitment to supporting and protecting Taiwan.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry replied that Washington should be responsible for the serious consequences of its decisions and is responsible for this wrong approach. Washington accused it of pursuing a policy of gradual undermining of the “one China” policy and vowed to take specific measures in response to this visit.

How did Washington deal with the visit and this crisis?

It seems that the American leadership, and the American decision-maker, deliberately created this crisis with China, and sought to use it to restore its prestige, which might have been shaken in the eyes of the Americans and the people of the world after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as it is the only pole that leads the world order, and the power The greatest in this universe, or on this planet Earth. And she wanted to direct multiple messages to more than one regional and international party. The American insistence on carrying out the visit, despite China’s high-profile and vocal warnings, showed the world the extent of American power, and that it is still the largest power in the world, and re-established that impression in the minds of the people and leaders of the world.

The American leadership succeeded in demonstrating the true extent of the limitations of Chinese power, in contrast to its mighty power in front of all the eyes of the world, redrawing the military balances in the world, and refuting all rumours and sayings, which were politically considering that China was just around the corner, to replace Washington in leading the world.

Sending reassuring messages to Washington’s allies in the South China Sea, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean, who are fighting over interests in the South China Sea, such as the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, Brunei, and others, and that Washington is still the strongest, and is committed to preserving their interests and national interests in the Pacific and India.

The American leadership and full control

Demonstrating the full control of the American naval power over all shipping routes in the Far East, the South China Sea, the Western Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and all the seas, gulfs and straits, in this region, all the way to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, and that most of the raw materials needed by the Chinese economy that pass through it do not It is still under the strong grip of America, and at its mercy.

Washington sent a message to China and the world that the United States of America will not allow in any way the emergence or presence of any other military force that competes with it in this region or threatens its national interests, and that for Washington this is a red line that it never allows crossing.

Despite America’s commitment and recognition of the one-China policy, Washington asserts that it will keep the Taiwan issue as a thorn in the heart of China, constantly haunting and containing the Chinese leadership and that the United States is able at any time to decide to recognize Taiwan’s independence if it so decides.

How did the Chinese deal with the visit and the crisis?

This crisis has proven to China many points and caveats, which still pose difficulties, restrictions and caveats that the Chinese decision-maker must reckon with, before taking any decision to confront the American pressures, and we can review the most important of them.

• China tried to draw into the minds of world opinion that the island of Taiwan represents a sensitive issue for the Chinese leadership and Chinese national security. Therefore, it raised the ceiling of Chinese military warnings to Washington to prevent the visit of Nancy Pelosi, despite the Chinese leadership’s knowledge of the American insistence, and its knowledge that not implementing its warnings if it insisted on Washington’s visit will lose credibility, will send wrong or correct messages to others about the weaknesses of China’s military capabilities and will injure the Chinese army in its pride, dignity and sovereignty of its land.

Despite that,

it insisted on taking this position, and raised the ceiling only to show the importance of the island and the importance of imposing the one-China policy, and kept the attention of the whole world in a state of anxiety and anticipation to send this message, so as not to repeat the mistakes it made in 1997 when the visit of the Chairman of the Council of Ministers passed. The former US Representative was passed by the island of Taiwan.

• But it kept its face, at least, when her Foreign Ministry said that China would carry out specific military strikes in response to this visit, (although it did not announce, or clarify the nature of these strikes, their place and time, or their type, are they economic strikes or not? military).

• He did not lose sight of the Chinese decision-maker, knowing well that any military confrontation between the Chinese army and the US army, even if it was a limited one, would have an impact on its economy and the flow of Chinese exports to the world. Which could lose trillions of dollars and paralyze its economy.

• In addition, the Chinese decision-maker still believes that the Chinese army still has military capabilities that do not qualify it to protect the shipping routes used by Chinese ships loaded with raw materials from most regions of the world to its ports, if Washington decides to prevent the arrival of these materials to China, and this will paralyze the economy. Chinese too.

• For that, we saw how these factors affected the formulation of the Chinese position towards this crisis and the visit.

In previous years,

China’s defence spending escalated, and the Chinese leadership adopted a strong policy to raise its armaments and defence capabilities, all to get rid of these previous points that weaken it, and which keep it hostage and at the mercy of the United States of America, despite the rise of Chinese defence capabilities, including its announcement of its possession of missiles The hypersonic strategy, and an aircraft carrier, and others, but this experience, and this test, proved to the Chinese leadership that its army and its capabilities are still at a weak level of strength, compared to the American force, which has proven that it is the largest military force in this world.

• The Chinese leadership made sure of this test that it had with Washington that America is determined to use Taiwan to contain China, and that it will not allow the presence of another military force in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including the South China Sea, and that the periods are not near, which China needs to become a force that competes with power America in the Far East, Southeast Asia, and that there are two options before it to overcome these difficulties, in order not to remain an economic giant and a political dwarf, and turn into a super-great country that leads the world.

First choice:

It directs it to obtain raw materials and energy from Siberia and Central Asia through land routes and dispenses with sea routes if it wants to obtain its full independence, and to get out of the mercy and pressures of Washington, and it can turn into a super-great country.

Of course, this requires the establishment of a strategic and continental alliance that links it with Moscow, and this may succeed fully or limitedly, and it is related to the extent of the conditions on which the Sino-Russian relations will be based, and the ambitions of both parties, and it may encounter some difficulties.

Or that China is rushing into military control of Eastern Siberia and Central Asia for the sake of this transformation, which is more difficult than before.

The second choice:

It is the continuation of the current Chinese policy of adopting a policy of slow steps in maintaining its survival as the second most powerful economy in the world while making continuous efforts in building its military capabilities, and acquiring strategic nuclear and non-nuclear weapons that reduce the power gap between its army and the US army, and the establishment of hundreds of Chinese military bases. In the Pacific, Indian, Red Sea and Mediterranean regions, in addition to owning tens of aircraft carriers, thousands of warships, destroyers and warplanes, it can protect its interests in these regions of the world, especially the shipping routes through which its imports of raw materials and energy pass. And its exports of goods and products from its factories, and this requires long periods, and it is not easy.

Finally

There is no doubt that the Chinese army felt humiliated, and that it received a strong blow in this crisis, but it succeeded in preserving the gains and was not dragged into a battle imposed on it by Washington that might lose its economy. And continue to build its power more and more, and time will race in that, and it will make China more oriented in establishing alliances with the surrounding powers, or major international ones to be able to reduce the American ability, and China still possesses many economic papers that may affect the American economy in Killed if you use it.