The New Lebanon: Between National Wealth, Regional Threat, and Militia Rule
Languages and writings are confused as to where to begin to explain and consolidate the perpetrations of the ruling authority in Lebanon, with its leaders, mafias, and turbans that hide behind the religious sanctuary, and commit all the evils of the era in failure and negligence, and the practice of maliciousness and robbery, and organized looting through its militias that released them in the administrations of the state and its circles. The six sectarian acts committed acts and fabricated sectarian rhetoric to sharpen the polarization in the Lebanese street, and to prevent recourse to the constitution and democracy, and for that was the prelude to the practice of banditry, looting, and plundering the state’s goods, for decades, until they plunged the entity into a pit of serious collapse.
The ruling authority in Lebanon
This authority struck the judiciary and prevented it from carrying out its work, and many examples are being struck, the latest of which is the Beirut port crime and the prevention of accountability.
The authority has benefited from the services of the Governor of the Banque du Liban and has committed all kinds of brokerage, money deals and financial engineering, and it prevents Capitol Control, and it prevents and disrupts with it the assistance of the International Monetary Fund, as well as the return of the money of depositors, and right holders who trusted the state and its banks and deposited all their lifetime earnings in it.
This authority conspired against the displaced Syrians, who have become a burden and pressure on the Lebanese infrastructure, and did not deal responsibly, neither with the West nor with Syria, to return them, as they do not have the sovereign decision, but are merely executors of foreign orders.
We will explain this in the following
This authority has weakened the army and the security forces, to justify mixing the papers of all the perpetrations of Lebanon’s land, air and sea borders, smuggling, and other violations of laws and a blow to sovereignty and the entity.
Today, Lebanon and the Lebanese are facing a new reality related to the future of its children, regarding oil and gas. Regardless of the arrogance of negotiation and concession that was previously carried out by Decree 6433, there are no accurate estimates of Lebanon’s reserves of gas and oil, as there are indications that the value exceeds 1000 billion dollars, from which companies obtain One-third of the share and the rest will be from the share of the Lebanese state.
What remains is estimated at $600 billion or more, and the logic of things is that it be deposited in a sovereign fund established for this purpose, as a national reserve such as gold that cannot be disposed of and is invested to support Lebanon financially and economically, and a specific small part of this money is provided in the process of advancement and development.
Investment in these stocks must happen quickly, as soon as the indirect agreements with Israel are signed, and on this basis, the recovery of this afflicted and exhausted country begins, so that it obtains abundant annual loans, and its sovereign rating rises, which strengthens its economy and investments.
This,
Of course, leads to an end to the suffering of the cost of electricity, which is the mother of calamities and wasted 45 billion dollars and no electricity. But concerns are still latent and frightening about Lebanon, where the demarcation agreement did not start, and he fears empty stunts that some of those who have surplus power that clashed may put up. With all the components of the sects in Lebanon, the functioning of Lebanon has been disrupted as it has been since the beginning of 2003…
This is in addition to regional and international factors, and the sharp polarization that began to take a sharp turn between Russia and the West against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the oil and gas supply chains on the Mediterranean coast.
But
The most important and most dangerous thing is that if the demarcation agreement is reached, and Lebanon is allowed to invest in its wealth, then the hand of the local political forces, their authority and their militias in this process will go unchecked, and the Sovereign Fund will be violated, and the national wealth will be wasted just as hundreds of billions of dollars have been squandered until today.
Lebanon will not be after investing in gas and oil as, before it, everyone will inevitably rush to it to get a foothold in it, an issue that is viewed positively, but its negatives are great and must be taken into account.
Iran has had an important influence in Lebanon through Hezbollah and its recognition many times, especially after it seized power ironically in 2016 by electing General Michel Aoun as President of the Republic. He decided the types of governments he wanted, and the type of parliamentary majorities that worked to remove Hariri and the Sunnis with his ally the Communist movement from The entire Lebanese political equation, and transformed the Christian situation into groups of failed competing and feuding parties seeking to increase their parliamentary numbers, so that political forces became distracted by small matters. On the rights of Christians, it lost weight, and its job became either supporting or opposing what Hezbollah was doing.
Consequently,
With the developments in the region and the world, the game has begun to narrow in the face of Hezbollah, and the state of objection to what it is doing is expanding, especially with the start of the countdown to electing a new president of the republic, where the conditions today are not the same as the days of the famines. Among the Lebanese, the reasons for the country’s sinking are that an armed party dominates the decision and imposes its conditions every time, and protects corruption and the corrupt, which led to the arrival of a group of new representatives on October 17, 2019 uprising, and brought about an adjustment in the balance of power within Parliament in favour of the opposition.
On the one hand,
There is an added dilemma, which is related to the demarcation of the maritime borders with Israel to extract the promised oil and gas. to begin extraction.
Israel is more urgent than the ruling Lebanese political forces to extract and start exporting despite the severe crises in Lebanon, and it has concluded agreements with the European Union to supply it with gas, and its interest is to find a settlement to this conflict as soon as possible, and the United States, as a mediator, is pressing towards accelerating the agreement, and it wants to preserve Israel’s security, and spare it Any military adventure, and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah threatens war, if no agreement is reached before the end of September, considering that he is fighting a battle to defend Lebanon’s rights, and his threat is the one that imposes the solution, knowing that he knows and everyone knows that the threat and the ability to be decisive They are not in his hands, especially about a file related to global energy security and chains. Rather, he is in the hands of Tehran, which does not want to anger Washington, in the hope of returning to the nuclear negotiating table, as well as in the presidential file. It is a difficult stage that Lebanon is doomed on more than one front the Inside and outside.
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